Bitcoin Surges Past $62,000

London: 29 July 2024 (TraderMade): Bitcoin has recovered from collapse to begin the month on a high note after reclaiming the $62,000 level. Analysts say July has historically been a positive month for Bitcoin because the market tends to bounce back during that period.

BTC has a median return of 9.6% between July 2013 and 2024. Glassnode has established a support level for Bitcoin at $60,500 to $61,600, with major resistance levels at $64,700 and $64,550. If it can surpass that hurdle, then BTC could aim for $70,000.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin has rebounded from collapse, starting July on a high note by reclaiming the $62,000 level.
• Historical data indicates July tends to be a positive month for Bitcoin, with a median return of 9.6% between 2013 and 2024.
• Analysts from Glassnode have identified key support and resistance levels that could see BTC aiming for $70,000.
• Experts suggest that improved market liquidity and positive seasonality bolster Bitcoin and Ether in July.
• Mt. Gox's $9 billion repayment to creditors poses a potential selling pressure on Bitcoin this month.

Experts Say July Has Historically Been A Positive Month For Bitcoin And Crypto Markets

The leading cryptocurrency has made a positive start to July, which experts predict may be a positive period for the broader market. Both BTC and Ether (ETH) have historically performed better during the month.

In previous years, Bitcoin experienced an average increase of almost 8% in July after a red candle close in June. Between 2013 and 2024, BTC had shed its value on six occasions during June, only for it to boom by at least 9.6% in July.

In a report published, analysts at QCP Capital said that Bitcoin had a median return of 9.6% in July and tends to bounce back strongly after a negative closing in June, where it fell -9.85%. They expected a bullish run for BTC this month.

Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Hand also shared the same view, stating that positive seasonality and improved liquidity could support the market in July. The case of positive seasonality is relevant as both Bitcoin and Ether have historically been shown to perform better this month, especially after a sell-off in June.

They noted that the current market setup looks supportive as a "lot of excess length" has been cleared out following the Japanese Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox's repayment announcement. Furthermore, market liquidity is expected to improve after daily average volumes for BTC and ETH in spot and futures markets across global exchanges declined by 16.7% between May and June, from $90 billion to $75 billion.

Gox's $9 Billion Repayment To Creditors Could Put Price Pressure On Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is faced with intense selling pressure this month due to Mt. Gox announcing it will commence repayments of over $9 billion in BTC and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to creditors.

JPMorgan analysts suggest that these creditors could sell parts of the Bitcoin they receive, which would initially put pressure on the market but with the potential for recovery from August onwards.

The positive July thesis is backed by Bitcoin miners' retreat from massive sell-offs. Mining entities capitulated and liquidated swathes of BTC to cover rising operational costs following the block reward halving event in April. However, that pattern has slowed down heading into the new month.

Glassnode's data suggested that Bitcoin has established support around the $60,500 to $61,600 mark. Nearly two million wallets have acquired more than 891,800 BTC, valued at $56.1 billion, making it likely to stay below that level.

At the same time, two major resistance walls at $64,700 and $64,550 stand between BTC and its short-term shoot back to the $70,000 range.

Global Inflation And Geopolitical Tensions Could Impact Bitcoin Price

Analysts say that the correlation between Bitcoin and macroeconomic events may strengthen even further due to global inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The ongoing inflationary cycle, particularly in the US, and tensions in Europe and the Middle East could have a greater impact on BTC markets.

Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chairman, spoke on July 2nd, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday and the release of US jobs data on July 5th.

Bitcoin has made a good start to the month, surging to a high of $63,500 on Monday, following a brief collapse to the $58,000 mark.

The rally was marked by a recovery in inflows to the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hit $73 million in net flows last Friday. This was the highest daily inflow recorded in two weeks.

Conclusion

As we progress through July, market watchers and crypto enthusiasts will be keenly observing whether Bitcoin can sustain its momentum and possibly break new ground. The combination of historical trends, improved liquidity, and broader market dynamics sets the stage for a strong performance this month.