Crude Oil Glimmering

London: 10 May 2024 (TraderMade): After weeks of volatility, crude oil prices are on track to end the week on a positive note, buoyed by rising demand optimism in China and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Both Brent crude, the global benchmark, and WTI crude, the US benchmark, are experiencing upward momentum.

Key Takeaways

• Both Brent and WTI crude prices are on track for a weekly gain, signaling a potential shift in the market sentiment.
• Rising demand expectations in China and the possibility of an OPEC+ production cut are supporting Brent prices.
• Optimism about US summer driving demand and decreasing US crude oil inventories are boosting WTI prices.

Brent Crude: Back Above $84 a Barrel

Brent Crude (UKOIL) surged 3.27% in the last 2-3 days and currently trades at $84.123 a barrel.

OPEC+ Production Cut Expectations

Brent crude futures for July delivery surged above $84 a barrel on Friday, 10 May, marking a significant gain from its lows earlier this week. This upward trend aligns with expectations of a potential production cut by OPEC+, the oil producer alliance, at their upcoming meeting in June.

A reduction in supply from major producers could tighten the market and push prices higher.

Surprise Drop in Saudi Supply to China

Additionally, a surprise drop in Saudi Arabian crude oil supplies to China in June, as reported by Reuters, has further tightened supply concerns, supporting Brent prices.

This unexpected development highlights the potential for unforeseen disruptions that can impact the global oil market.

WTI Crude: Optimism on US Demand Recovery

WTI Crude (OIL) soared 3.68% in the last 2-3 days and currently trades at $79.445 a barrel.

Summer Driving Season Boost

WTI crude futures also showcased resilience, climbing above $79 a barrel on Friday. This rise reflects growing optimism about a potential rebound in US driving demand as the summer season approaches.

With increased travel and leisure activities, gasoline consumption is expected to rise, putting upward pressure on WTI prices.

Inventory Drawdowns and Refinery Activity

Analysts point towards a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a rise in refinery utilization rates as positive indicators for WTI prices.

A decline in stockpiles suggests strong demand, while increased refinery activity signifies higher processing of crude oil into gasoline and other fuels.

Summary

The global oil market is experiencing a welcome uptick after a period of volatility. While short-term uncertainties remain concerning potential recessions and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the combination of rising demand in key markets and potential supply constraints offers a ray of hope for oil producers and investors.

Market participants will closely monitor the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and summer driving season in the coming weeks. They have the potential to further influence the price trajectory of crude oil.